%20(500%20x%20500%20%D8%A8%D9%8A%D9%83%D8%B3%D9%84).png){kind=small}
Will 2024 mark a turning point for the German automobile industry?
German carmakers are lagging behind their rivals in electric mobility as the era of fossil fuel-guzzling cars gradually comes to an end, Can German companies adapt to new challenges?
Various advertisements attempt to portray the future of modern transportation as clean and peaceful. They show cars with very low noise, emitting no harmful emissions, driving on almost empty roads through the charming nature, carrying passengers on their way to work or shopping in clean cities without traffic jams.
.png "Will 2024 mark a turning point for the German automobile industry?") |
| Will 2024 mark a turning point for the German automobile industry? |
But the reality is of course somewhat different, as traffic jams, noise and the smell of car exhaust are everywhere in Germany.
According to Germany's Federal Transport Authority (KBA), the market share of electric vehicles in the country has increased, but is still relatively small.
Ten years ago, these cars represented 0.02% of the total number of cars on the road; Today the number has risen to 2.08%, This means that out of 50 cars, there is only one that runs on electricity.
You may welcome or reject this trend, or you may lament that nearly 98% of cars still run on combustion engines, You can also celebrate every new electric car that rolls off the assembly line, or be an advocate for driving a "real" car.
Whatever your position on the issue, the trend toward electric transportation is expected to continue, The question now is whether Germany's auto industry - one of the main pillars of the economy - is prepared for the future.
Germany lags behind others:
Germany is not currently at the forefront of developed countries in the issue of electric/electronic transportation.
In this context, Ferdinand Dudenhofer, former professor of automotive economics at the University of Duisburg-Essen, who now works as an independent consultant, says:
“By continuing to reduce incentives for the scheme to replace internal combustion engine cars with electric cars, Economics Minister Robert Habeck has curbed the production of electric cars in the country” Germany".
Dudenhofer estimates that the market share of electric cars in Germany will decline next year, and adds that the outlook globally is equally bleak: “China alone will continue to operate at full speed, and this will pay off at a rate two and three times greater for the Chinese auto industry.”
Due to the recent ruling issued by the German Constitutional Court that the government’s reallocation of funds to combat the Corona pandemic to climate-related projects in the 2021 budget was unconstitutional, the government was forced to stop supporting electric cars earlier than planned.
As of December 18, it is no longer possible to apply for this support to purchase an electric car.
Stefan Bratzel, head of the car management center in Bergisch Gladbach near Cologne, is also pessimistic.
According to his point of view, “the race for electric mobility in Germany, Europe and China is already over”, He says that intensifying work in this market quickly is essential, However, Bratzel warns that the goals “set by the German government are too ambitious and will not be achieved.”
According to a government assessment, there are expected to be around 15 million electric cars on Germany's roads by 2030.
"A feeling of despair in Germany":
Bratzel adds that German automakers “started very late in breaking into the electric car market compared to players like Tesla or some Chinese companies” and therefore “did not deal with the issue with the necessary focus.”
Despite efforts to boost the development of battery technology in particular, “first you have to quickly catch up with Chinese companies and Tesla,” Bratzel says.
Dudenhofer agrees that China has a clear advantage in this area, He says in this context: We are reducing the volume of investments.
Some are postponed and other investments are made in China, In addition, budget problems and the lack of a federal budget exacerbate the matter, adding, Germany is at a dead end... It will be really difficult after 2025 when the Chinese dominate the global market for electric cars."
Dependence on China:
On November 30, automakers BMW and Mercedes-Benz announced plans to create a joint network of fast-charging stations for electric vehicles in China, a logical development, Dudenhofer says. “Germany is not a country that deserves such investments,” he adds.
“In China, electric cars now represent a market share of about 40%.”
For his part, Bratzel highlights the danger of over-reliance on China, although he explains that it is a two-way relationship: “China also depends on us,” but there is a caveat: “In the field of electric mobility, we are more dependent on China,” he says.
"This will remain the case for a few more years, especially when it comes to battery cells."
Dudenhofer says the development and production of batteries is key: “We are expanding more slowly... Production goes to Eastern Europe because energy is cheap there.
But China is already at the forefront and its importance will continue to grow.”
German production declined:
German manufacturers are already bearing the brunt of slowing demand for electric cars, The newspaper Riederland Zeitung recently published an article about Volkswagen's plant in Emden, East Frisia, revealing that production of electric cars had "already stopped in early summer.
The second shift in production for electric cars was canceled and there were several production interruptions," The newspaper added: “Production also started very early and has been extended until January 15, Electric vehicle production in Emden will be completely halted for five weeks.”
Production of electric vehicles requires fewer work steps and fewer employees, This applies not only to car manufacturers, but also to their suppliers, For example, up to 1,500 jobs will be lost at raw materials supplier Bosch, the company announced on December 10.
The job cuts are partly justified by the idea of a reduced need for a number of jobs in the field of electric mobility, A spokesman said the company "will have to adapt to the volume of demand in some regions."
However, it's not all bad news From the customer's point of view, there is hope regarding the range provided by a charged battery, says Dudenhofer, who adds: "In China today, an operating period of up to 1,000 kilometers has already been achieved.
" He says this will not be a problem after 2027 or 2028, and “the prices of regular batteries will also fall.”
Looking ahead, the Federal Transport Authority estimates that around 10 million electric vehicles will be registered in Germany by January 1, 2030.
Depending on the size of the current vehicle stock, this corresponds to a share of electric vehicles of 20-25% But what the authority cannot predict is the number of electric cars that will be produced in Germany.